The US Iran ceasefire deal is real. Trump announced it at 3:57 AM from France, markets soared, and oil fell 4%. The Strait of Hormuz reopens June 19 under a 60-day MOU. Israel is not on board. Iran and the U.S. describe two very different versions of the same agreement. The next 60 days will tell the real story.
Oil prices Iran deal headlines moved markets again on Friday. Brent fell 3.37% to $87.33, WTI fell 3.23% to $84.88, down more than 6% for the week and nearly 20% for the month. Pakistan says a final peace deal text exists. Trump disputes Iranian reports on the terms. Markets are betting on a negotiated outcome.
The Iran conflict exposed a deeper truth about modern war infrastructure: our most advanced technologies still run on oil, electricity, and undersea cables. AI needs power. Data centers need energy. GPS guides our missiles. And 97% of global internet traffic flows through cables on the ocean floor. The next war may target all of them.
U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day Iran MOU deal framework — but Trump has not signed yet. He says he is "not satisfied." Good. Iran wants sanctions lifted before doing anything. Trump demands relief for performance only. The Strait of Hormuz, nuclear enrichment, and regional proxies all hang in the balance.
The Hormuz blockade threatens more than a temporary oil shock. As gas injection stops in aging Gulf wells, water, wax and asphaltenes can permanently damage output. Strikes on South Pars and Ras Laffan deepen fears of lost capacity, higher LNG costs and years of elevated energy prices. Markets may face a long, costly supply reset.
